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May

U.S. Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance, Factory Orders, BOC Governor Speaks

calendar 02/05/2024 - 08:37 UTC

After hitting new multi month highs against most major currencies, the dollar posted a moderate decline on Wednesday, with the dollar index (USDX) ending the session 0.64% lower. The move came following a long-awaited March FOMC meeting where interest rates were eventually left unchanged, and comments indicated that disappointing inflation readings could further stall plans for monetary easing and slow down the pace of its balance sheet drawdown. Attention now shifts towards the release of employment data at the end of this week.

According to the CME Fedwatch tool, bets for a rate cut in June are currently at 8.9% while July and September stand at 27.6% and 43% respectively.

In other news, the yen surged against the dollar supported by what traders suspect is another round of intervention by Japanese authorities to stop the sharp decline in the Japanese currency. The USD/JPY pair fell by 1.28% on Wednesday and continues to move deeper into negative territory early on Thursday.

Oil prices continue to plunge on Wednesday, for a third consecutive session, with the two main benchmarks WTI and Brent both losing 2.75% of their values respectively as an unexpected increase in U.S. inventories and signs that the Federal Reserve is set to keep rates higher for longer added pressure on sentiment. Data from the Energy Information Administration, showed U.S. inventories for the week ended Apr. 26, rose by 7.3M barrels, surpassing forecasts 2.3M barrels decline.

In Wall Street, sentiment shifts towards stocks of smaller market capitalization, with the US 2000 being on an up-trending slope since April 19th. The three main US equity indices traded between gains and losses on Wednesday, coming from big losses seen the day before as the Fed did very little to boost the markets even though it maintained its rate hike schedule while downplaying the prospect of possible rate hikes.

Some price action could be observed later today, upon the release of U.S. jobless claims, trade balance, factory orders and earnings reports from several key market players such as Apple, Moderna, Booking and Expedia.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair bumped higher on Wednesday ending the session with moderate gains of 0.48%. The Fed kept interest rates steady on Wednesday, as widely expected and at the same time Chair Jerome Powell, in his post-meeting address, offered somewhat mixed signals on the path of rates.

Fed Chair Powell mentioned the importance of jobs figures to ascertain the inflation outlook for the US, adding additional weight to this Friday's upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

The latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed a decrease in Job Openings. In the last business day of March, openings dropped to 8.488M, down from March's revised figure of 8.813M and below the anticipated 8.680M.

EUR/USD

Gold

Gold prices rose on Wednesday rebounding back above the key level of $2300 per ounce, although momentum in the yellow metal was stalled by persistent expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates.

The yellow metal rebounded in overnight trade after the Federal Reserve quashed expectations for any further interest rate hikes- which pulled down the dollar and offered some relief to commodity prices.

But the Fed still signalled it was in no hurry to begin cutting interest rates- a trend that is expected to limit any major upside in gold.

Gold

WTI Oil

Oil prices settled lower Wednesday, as an unexpected build in U.S. stockpiles and signs that the Federal Reserve is set to keep rates higher for longer than previously expected weighed on sentiment.

Data from the Energy Information Administration, showed U.S. inventories for the week ended Apr. 26, jumped by 7.3M barrels, confounding expectations for a draw of 2.3M barrels.

The data suggest that oil supplies were not as tight as initially expected in the world’s biggest fuel consumer.

Moreover, expectations that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas could be in sight have grown following a renewed push led by Egypt.

WTI Oil

US 500

U.S. stock index futures rose on Wednesday after a whipsaw session on Wall Street as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that interest rates will remain high for longer but dismissed the prospect of a rate hike.

Powell’s comments offered some relief to markets, which had fallen sharply in recent sessions amid growing concerns over sticky inflation giving the Fed less confidence to cut interest rates. Powell signalled that the next rate move from the Fed was still likely to be an interest rate cut, although the timing of the move remained uncertain following a series of hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation readings.

Focus this week now turns to nonfarm payrolls data for April, due on Friday, which is also expected to factor into the outlook for interest rates. The first-quarter earnings season carried on, with Apple Inc set to report its earnings after the close on Thursday.

US 500

The materials contained on this document should not in any way be construed, either explicitly or implicitly, directly or indirectly, as investment advice, recommendation or suggestion of an investment strategy with respect to a financial instrument, in any manner whatsoever. Any indication of past performance or simulated past performance included in this document is not a reliable indicator of future results. For the full disclaimer click here.

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